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Umea vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Umea

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Karlstad

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.5% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+17.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-116.8%0-212.9%0-36.6%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.4%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.5%2-13.9%2-23.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.6%3-10.9%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.1% 34.7% 2.88 -33.9%

Draw 27.5% 27.8% 3.60 -0.6%

Away win 57.5% 48.8% 2.05 +17.9%

Over 2.5 46.2% 60.6% 1.65 -23.8%

Over 3.5 18.4% 38.2% 2.62 -31.1%

BTTS 48.6% 63.7% 1.57 -23.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.6%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.8%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 0–2✓ 12.9%

#4 0–0 10.9%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea0.7

Karlstad1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA · PPG 1.33

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Umea (H) 15.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -33.9%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.6%

Karlstad (A) 57.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea face Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea a 15% chance, the draw 28% and Karlstad 57%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Umea and 1.5 for Karlstad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Umea vs Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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