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Maranhao vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 22:30

Maranhao

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Caxias

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-113.2%0-25.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.0%1-113.5%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.6%2-16.9%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 39.2% 2.55 -3.4%

Draw 35.0% 34.5% 2.90 +1.5%

Away win 27.1% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Over 2.5 35.0% 38.5% 2.60 -9.0%

Over 3.5 12.8% 22.2% 4.50 -25.4%

BTTS 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maranhao1.0

Caxias0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARANHAO · PPG 2.33

CAXIAS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=37.9%

Win probability 1X2

Maranhao (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -3.4%

Draw 35.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +1.5%

Caxias (A) 27.1%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maranhao face Caxias in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maranhao a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Caxias 27%, so Maranhao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Maranhao and 0.9 for Caxias (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maranhao are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Caxias. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Maranhao vs Caxias Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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