Today / Brazil - Serie C / Barra FC vs Guarani

Barra FC vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 20:00

Barra FC

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Guarani

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-111.1%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.7%1-113.2%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-17.9%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 38.5% 2.60 +17.0%

Draw 29.4% 34.5% 2.90 -8.8%

Away win 25.6% 37.0% 2.70 -18.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 39.2% 2.55 +17.8%

Over 3.5 16.0% 22.2% 4.50 -16.8%

BTTS 48.8% 48.8% 2.05 +0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.8%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra FC1.2

Guarani0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA FC · PPG 1.67

GUARANI · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Barra FC (H) 45.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +17.0%

Draw 29.4%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.8%

Guarani (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra FC face Guarani in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra FC a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Guarani 26%, so Barra FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Barra FC and 0.9 for Guarani (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra FC are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Guarani. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Barra FC vs Guarani Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions