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Utsikten vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Utsikten

PPG 0.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Trelleborg

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.5%0-25.5%0-38.1%0-4+29.7%1 1-00.4%1-11.9%1-24.2%1-36.2%1-4+22.9%2 2-00.2%2-10.7%2-21.6%2-32.4%2-4+8.8%3 3-00.0%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.6%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.5% 14.3% 7.00 -20.1%

Draw 18.8% 20.8% 4.80 -5.9%

Away win 71.7% 75.2% 1.33 -4.6%

Over 2.5 79.0% 69.0% 1.45 +14.5%

Over 3.5 75.8% 46.5% 2.15 +63.0%

BTTS 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)4.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 72% / xG 0.8-4.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 8.9%

#2 0–3 8.1%

#3 0–5 7.8%

#4 1–4 6.8%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utsikten0.8

Trelleborg4.4

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 75.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.00

TRELLEBORG · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Utsikten (H) 9.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -20.1%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -5.9%

Trelleborg (A) 71.7%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utsikten face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utsikten a 10% chance, the draw 19% and Trelleborg 72%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Utsikten and 4.4 for Trelleborg (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utsikten are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 3.00 for Trelleborg. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +63.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Utsikten vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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