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Stocksund vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Stocksund

PPG 0.40 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Assyriska

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.0%0-23.1%0-32.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.0%1-16.4%1-26.7%1-34.7%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.3%2-35.1%2-4+4.3%3 3-02.4%3-15.0%3-25.2%3-33.7%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.5%4+-24.7%4+-33.3%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 35.7% 2.80 +19.6%

Draw 21.9% 26.7% 3.75 -10.7%

Away win 35.3% 47.6% 2.10 -25.9%

Over 2.5 68.8% 69.0% 1.45 -0.2%

Over 3.5 61.7% 46.5% 2.15 +32.6%

BTTS 66.7% 71.4% 1.40 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 43% / xG 2.2-2.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.4%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stocksund2.2

Assyriska2.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.8% · O3.5 PROB 61.7%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.40

ASSYRISKA · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.25) strong but model favors Home (P=42.7%)

Win probability 1X2

Stocksund (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +19.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.7%

Assyriska (A) 35.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stocksund face Assyriska in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stocksund a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Assyriska 35%, so Stocksund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Stocksund and 2.1 for Assyriska (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stocksund are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.25 for Assyriska. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.6%. This match finished 3-3.

Stocksund vs Assyriska Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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