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Stockholm Inter vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Stockholm Inter

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Karlberg

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.8%0-24.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.6%1-111.4%1-26.8%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.5%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.5%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 66.7% 1.50 -26.8%

Draw 26.0% 25.3% 3.95 +1.6%

Away win 25.2% 18.2% 5.50 +23.2%

Over 2.5 55.7% 60.6% 1.65 -8.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

BTTS 55.5% 59.9% 1.67 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.5%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stockholm Inter1.7

Karlberg1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STOCKHOLM INTER · PPG 1.00

KARLBERG · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.75) strong but model favors Home (P=48.8%)

Win probability 1X2

Stockholm Inter (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -26.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.6%

Karlberg (A) 25.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stockholm Inter face Karlberg in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stockholm Inter a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Karlberg 25%, so Stockholm Inter are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stockholm Inter and 1.2 for Karlberg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stockholm Inter are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Karlberg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Stockholm Inter vs Karlberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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