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Jarfalla vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

Jarfalla

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gefle

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-19.4%0-26.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.7%1-112.2%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 39.2% 2.55 -7.7%

Draw 26.7% 28.6% 3.50 -3.9%

Away win 37.1% 42.0% 2.38 -11.7%

Over 2.5 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.6%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 0–0 6.7%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarfalla1.3

Gefle1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JARFALLA · PPG 1.00

GEFLE · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Jarfalla (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -7.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.9%

Gefle (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarfalla face Gefle in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarfalla a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Gefle 37%, so Gefle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jarfalla and 1.4 for Gefle (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarfalla are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Gefle. This match finished 4-0.

Jarfalla vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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