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FBK Karlstad vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 14:00

FBK Karlstad

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Arlanda

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-112.9%0-26.6%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.2%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.9%2-17.1%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.4%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 44.4% 2.25 -19.4%

Draw 30.3% 28.2% 3.55 +7.6%

Away win 33.9% 37.0% 2.70 -8.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 60.6% 1.65 -23.8%

Over 3.5 15.6% 38.5% 2.60 -35.7%

BTTS 49.0% 65.4% 1.53 -25.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.0%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0✓ 12.6%

#3 1–0 13.2%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBK Karlstad1.0

Arlanda1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 2.50

ARLANDA · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

FBK Karlstad (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.4%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +7.6%

Arlanda (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBK Karlstad face Arlanda in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBK Karlstad a 36% chance, the draw 30% and Arlanda 34%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for FBK Karlstad and 1.0 for Arlanda (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBK Karlstad are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.50 for Arlanda. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 0-0.

FBK Karlstad vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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