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Oberachern vs Aalen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:30

Oberachern

PPG 1.63 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Aalen

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-18.2%0-210.3%0-38.6%0-4+9.8%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.4%1-37.8%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.4%2-13.4%2-24.3%2-33.6%2-4+4.1%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.3%3-31.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 21.5% — — —

Away win 64.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.5% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 0–3 8.6%

#5 1–3 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oberachern0.9

Aalen2.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OBERACHERN · PPG 1.63

AALEN · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Oberachern (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aalen (A) 64.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Oberachern face Aalen in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oberachern a 14% chance, the draw 22% and Aalen 65%, so Aalen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Oberachern and 2.5 for Aalen (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oberachern are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 2.60 for Aalen. This match finished 3-2.

Oberachern vs Aalen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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