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Sogndal B vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

Sogndal B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Varegg

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.9%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.0%1-13.2%1-21.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.7%2-16.1%2-23.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.1%3-17.6%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-017.8%4+-119.0%4+-210.1%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% — — —

Draw 20.4% — — —

Away win 8.6% — — —

Over 2.5 78.7% — — —

Over 3.5 70.9% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 91%

BTTS 91%

Score Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 71% / xG 3.8-1.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 7.1%

#3 3–0 7.1%

#4 4–0 6.7%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal B3.8

Varegg1.1

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.7% · O3.5 PROB 70.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL B · PPG 1.00

VAREGG · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal B (H) 71.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Varegg (A) 8.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal B face Varegg in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal B a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Varegg 9%, so Sogndal B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Sogndal B and 1.1 for Varegg (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Varegg.

Sogndal B vs Varegg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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