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Tvaaker vs Trollhattan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Tvaaker

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Trollhattan

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-112.3%0-25.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.0%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.6%2-17.3%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.8%3-12.7%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 42.6% 2.35 -7.9%

Draw 32.9% 29.0% 3.45 +13.5%

Away win 28.0% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 15.2% 36.4% 2.75 -34.9%

BTTS 48.6% 64.5% 1.55 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

H 39% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 14.0%

#4 0–1 12.3%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvaaker1.1

Trollhattan1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TVAAKER · PPG 2.00

TROLLHATTAN · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Tvaaker (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -7.9%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +13.5%

Trollhattan (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvaaker face Trollhattan in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvaaker a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Trollhattan 28%, so Tvaaker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Tvaaker and 1.0 for Trollhattan (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvaaker are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.33 for Trollhattan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Tvaaker vs Trollhattan Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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