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Rosengard vs Olympic Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Rosengard

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Olympic

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.6%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.9%1-111.7%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 56.5% 1.77 -20.5%

Draw 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

Away win 29.0% 27.0% 3.70 +4.4%

Over 2.5 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

BTTS 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.8%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosengard1.5

Olympic1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENGARD · PPG 0.33

OLYMPIC · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.33) vs Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Rosengard (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -20.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.5%

Olympic (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosengard face Olympic in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosengard a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Olympic 29%, so Rosengard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rosengard and 1.3 for Olympic (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosengard are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Rosengard vs Olympic Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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