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Enkoping vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Enkoping

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hammarby Talang

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.1%0-25.9%0-35.7%0-4+8.4%1 1-01.9%1-15.6%1-28.1%1-37.8%1-4+11.4%2 2-01.3%2-13.8%2-25.5%2-35.3%2-4+7.8%3 3-00.6%3-11.7%3-22.5%3-32.4%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 21.1% 4.75 -20.7%

Draw 21.2% 25.3% 3.95 -9.8%

Away win 64.9% 63.7% 1.57 +1.9%

Over 2.5 67.6% 64.5% 1.55 +4.8%

Over 3.5 61.4% 42.0% 2.38 +46.1%

BTTS 62.5% 63.7% 1.57 -1.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob62.5%

A 65% / xG 1.4-2.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–3 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 0–2 5.9%

#5 0–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enkoping1.4

Hammarby Talang2.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ENKOPING · PPG 2.40

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Enkoping (H) 13.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -20.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.8%

Hammarby Talang (A) 64.9%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enkoping face Hammarby Talang in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enkoping a 14% chance, the draw 21% and Hammarby Talang 65%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Enkoping and 2.9 for Hammarby Talang (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enkoping are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 3.00 for Hammarby Talang. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +46.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Enkoping vs Hammarby Talang Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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