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IF Ready vs Baerum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

IF Ready

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Baerum

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.9%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.2%1-15.6%1-23.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.2%2-18.1%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-111.8%4+-27.8%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 41.7% 2.40 +42.3%

Draw 20.3% 25.0% 4.00 -11.3%

Away win 20.4% 45.5% 2.20 -33.1%

Over 2.5 66.4% 75.2% 1.33 -11.7%

Over 3.5 61.1% 62.5% 1.60 -2.2%

BTTS 62.5% 80.0% 1.25 -21.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.5%

H 59% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IF Ready2.9

Baerum1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 61.1%

Form & verdict PPG

IF READY · PPG 3.00

BAERUM · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

IF Ready (H) 59.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +42.3%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -11.3%

Baerum (A) 20.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

IF Ready face Baerum in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IF Ready a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Baerum 20%, so IF Ready are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for IF Ready and 1.3 for Baerum (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IF Ready are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Baerum. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.3%. This match finished 4-2.

IF Ready vs Baerum Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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