Today / Stjarnan vs Fram

Stjarnan vs Fram Prediction

Friday, May 22, 2026

Stjarnan

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

Fram

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-11.0%0-21.8%0-32.0%0-4+4.0%1 1-00.7%1-12.5%1-24.2%1-34.8%1-4+9.7%2 2-00.9%2-13.0%2-25.0%2-35.7%2-4+11.6%3 3-00.7%3-12.4%3-24.0%3-34.6%3-4+9.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-12.5%4+-24.2%4+-34.8%4+-4+9.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.4% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 52.9% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 83.0% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 53% / xG 2.4-3.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.7%

#2 2–2 5.0%

#3 2–4 4.9%

#4 1–3 4.8%

#5 3–3 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stjarnan2.4

Fram3.4

COMBINED 5.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 83.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STJARNAN · PPG 0.75

FRAM · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Stjarnan (H) 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fram (A) 52.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stjarnan face Fram on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stjarnan a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Fram 53%, so Fram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Stjarnan and 3.4 for Fram (5.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stjarnan are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.33 for Fram. This match finished 0-1.

Stjarnan vs Fram Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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