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Unia Skierniewi vs Chojniczanka Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

Unia Skierniewi

PPG 2.06 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Chojniczanka

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.9%0-23.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.1%1-19.7%1-26.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.6%3-16.2%3-24.2%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.7%4+-23.2%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Draw 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Away win 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Over 2.5 61.4% 62.5% 1.60 -1.8%

Over 3.5 42.2% 42.0% 2.38 +0.4%

BTTS 59.7% 66.7% 1.50 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Unia Skierniewi2.0

Chojniczanka1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIA SKIERNIEWI · PPG 2.06

CHOJNICZANKA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.06) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Unia Skierniewi (H) 51.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +0.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Chojniczanka (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Unia Skierniewi face Chojniczanka in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Unia Skierniewi a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Chojniczanka 24%, so Unia Skierniewi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Unia Skierniewi and 1.4 for Chojniczanka (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Unia Skierniewi are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.50 for Chojniczanka. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-3.

Unia Skierniewi vs Chojniczanka Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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