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Qviding vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:30

Qviding

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Onsala

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.0%0-21.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-03.4%1-15.6%1-24.6%1-32.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-04.7%2-17.7%2-26.3%2-33.5%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.3%3-17.0%3-25.8%3-33.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-19.4%4+-27.7%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 52.6% 1.90 +0.1%

Draw 22.4% 25.3% 3.95 -6.9%

Away win 24.8% 31.3% 3.20 -12.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 76.9% 1.30 -9.3%

Over 3.5 63.9% 55.6% 1.80 +15.0%

BTTS 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 53% / xG 2.7-1.6 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 3–1 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qviding2.7

Onsala1.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.9%

Form & verdict PPG

QVIDING · PPG 1.00

ONSALA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Qviding (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +0.1%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.9%

Onsala (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qviding face Onsala in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qviding a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Onsala 25%, so Qviding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Qviding and 1.6 for Onsala (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qviding are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Onsala. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Qviding vs Onsala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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