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Hestrafor vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Hestrafor

PPG 0.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jonsered

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.1%0-26.2%0-34.2%0-4+3.5%1 1-04.4%1-18.9%1-29.1%1-36.2%1-4+5.1%2 2-03.2%2-16.6%2-26.7%2-34.6%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.6%3-13.2%3-23.3%3-32.3%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.6%4+-21.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 36.4% 2.75 -11.7%

Draw 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Away win 45.6% 47.6% 2.10 -4.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 69.4% 1.44 -8.0%

Over 3.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

BTTS 61.0% 72.5% 1.38 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.0%

A 46% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hestrafor1.5

Jonsered2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HESTRAFOR · PPG 0.33

JONSERED · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Hestrafor (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.7%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Jonsered (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hestrafor face Jonsered in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hestrafor a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Jonsered 46%, so Jonsered are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hestrafor and 2.0 for Jonsered (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hestrafor are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.75 for Jonsered. This match finished 5-1.

Hestrafor vs Jonsered Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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