Today / Herrestads vs VFK

Herrestads vs VFK Prediction

Friday, May 22, 2026

Herrestads

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

VFK

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.7%0-23.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.3%1-18.9%1-27.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.2%3-15.3%3-24.5%3-32.5%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% — — —

Draw 23.3% — — —

Away win 33.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.9%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrestads1.9

VFK1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRESTADS · PPG 1.75

VFK · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=42.9%

Win probability 1X2

Herrestads (H) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

VFK (A) 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrestads face VFK on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrestads a 43% chance, the draw 23% and VFK 34%, so Herrestads are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Herrestads and 1.7 for VFK (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrestads are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.75 for VFK. This match finished 1-1.

Herrestads vs VFK Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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