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Lund vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Lund

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Eskilsminne

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.2%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.2%1-111.0%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.8%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-15.8%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 50.0% 2.00 +5.8%

Draw 25.2% 28.2% 3.55 -6.3%

Away win 22.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 28.2% 40.0% 2.50 -17.7%

BTTS 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lund1.8

Eskilsminne0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUND · PPG 3.00

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

Lund (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +5.8%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.3%

Eskilsminne (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lund face Eskilsminne in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lund a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Eskilsminne 22%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lund and 0.9 for Eskilsminne (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lund are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Eskilsminne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 4-2.

Lund vs Eskilsminne Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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