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Kristianstad vs Hassleholms IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Kristianstad

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hassleholms IF

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.6%1-110.7%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 41.7% 2.40 +11.1%

Draw 26.1% 29.0% 3.45 -6.0%

Away win 27.6% 39.2% 2.55 -17.8%

Over 2.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Over 3.5 37.6% 36.4% 2.75 +3.4%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kristianstad1.7

Hassleholms IF1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.6%

Form & verdict PPG

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 1.33

HASSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kristianstad (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.0%

Hassleholms IF (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kristianstad face Hassleholms IF in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kristianstad a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Hassleholms IF 28%, so Kristianstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kristianstad and 1.4 for Hassleholms IF (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kristianstad are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Hassleholms IF. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Kristianstad vs Hassleholms IF Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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