Today / V. Haugesund vs Stord

V. Haugesund vs Stord Prediction

Friday, May 22, 2026

V. Haugesund

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Stord

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 6.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-20.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.7%1-11.3%1-21.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-01.6%2-13.0%2-22.9%2-31.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-14.6%3-24.4%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-119.1%4+-218.3%4+-311.7%4+-4+8.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.1% — — —

Draw 20.2% — — —

Away win 16.7% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 89.0% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 63% / xG 4.6-1.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1✓ 5.3%

#2 4–2 5.1%

#3 5–1 4.9%

#4 5–2 4.7%

#5 3–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. Haugesund4.6

Stord1.9

COMBINED 6.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 89.0%

Form & verdict PPG

V. HAUGESUND · PPG 3.00

STORD · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=63.1%

Win probability 1X2

V. Haugesund (H) 63.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Stord (A) 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Haugesund face Stord on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Haugesund a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Stord 17%, so V. Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for V. Haugesund and 1.9 for Stord (6.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Haugesund are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Stord. This match finished 4-1.

V. Haugesund vs Stord Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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