Today / Zalgiris B vs BFA Vilnius

Zalgiris B vs BFA Vilnius Prediction

Friday, May 22, 2026

Zalgiris B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

BFA Vilnius

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.5%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-110.4%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zalgiris B1.9

BFA Vilnius0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZALGIRIS B · PPG 2.00

BFA VILNIUS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Zalgiris B (H) 53.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

BFA Vilnius (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zalgiris B face BFA Vilnius on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zalgiris B a 53% chance, the draw 25% and BFA Vilnius 22%, so Zalgiris B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Zalgiris B and 0.9 for BFA Vilnius (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zalgiris B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for BFA Vilnius. This match finished 3-4.

Zalgiris B vs BFA Vilnius Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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