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Nottingen vs TSV Essingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 33 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Nottingen

PPG 1.63 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

TSV Essingen

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.5%0-22.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.0%1-16.4%1-25.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.6%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.3%3-16.9%3-25.6%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-18.1%4+-26.5%4+-33.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 24.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 59.6% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1✓ 6.4%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingen2.5

TSV Essingen1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGEN · PPG 1.63

TSV ESSINGEN · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Nottingen (H) 52.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TSV Essingen (A) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingen face TSV Essingen in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingen a 52% chance, the draw 23% and TSV Essingen 25%, so Nottingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Nottingen and 1.6 for TSV Essingen (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingen are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.56 for TSV Essingen. This match finished 1-1.

Nottingen vs TSV Essingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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