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Z. Sosnowiec vs Kalisz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Z. Sosnowiec

PPG 0.94 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kalisz

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-19.6%0-26.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.3%1-112.4%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.1%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.6%3-13.5%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 51.3% 1.95 -30.0%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 36.9% 30.3% 3.30 +21.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 27.1% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

BTTS 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.5%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Z. Sosnowiec1.3

Kalisz1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

Z. SOSNOWIEC · PPG 0.94

KALISZ · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Z. Sosnowiec (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -30.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

Kalisz (A) 36.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Z. Sosnowiec face Kalisz in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Z. Sosnowiec a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Kalisz 37%, so Kalisz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Z. Sosnowiec and 1.3 for Kalisz (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Z. Sosnowiec are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.06 for Kalisz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Z. Sosnowiec vs Kalisz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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