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Auda vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 15:00

Auda

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Liepaja

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.2%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.1%1-19.1%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.2%3-17.0%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 55.6% 1.80 -4.2%

Draw 24.6% 27.0% 3.70 -5.4%

Away win 22.1% 27.4% 3.65 -11.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 61.7% 1.62 -0.5%

Over 3.5 41.6% 40.0% 2.50 +4.0%

BTTS 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1✓ 7.0%

#5 1–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda2.2

Liepaja1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.50

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -4.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.4%

Liepaja (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Liepaja 22%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Auda and 1.1 for Liepaja (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Auda vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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