Today / L. Longyuan vs Dalian Kewei

L. Longyuan vs Dalian Kewei Prediction

Friday, May 22, 2026

L. Longyuan
PPG 1.25 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Dalian Kewei
PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-045.3%0-119.9%0-24.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-17.0%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-02.8%2-11.2%2-20.3%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.1%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 24.6%
Draw 48.7%
Away win 26.7%
Over 2.5 19.8%
Over 3.5 0.9%
BTTS 25.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob25.0%

D 49% / xG 0.4-0.4 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 45.3%
#2 0–1 19.9%
#3 1–0 15.9%
#4 1–1 7.0%
#5 0–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

L. Longyuan0.4
Dalian Kewei0.4

COMBINED 0.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 19.8% · O3.5 PROB 0.9%

Form & verdict PPG

L. LONGYUAN · PPG 1.25

DALIAN KEWEI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

L. Longyuan (H) 24.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 48.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Dalian Kewei (A) 26.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

L. Longyuan face Dalian Kewei on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives L. Longyuan a 25% chance, the draw 49% and Dalian Kewei 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.4 for L. Longyuan and 0.4 for Dalian Kewei (0.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, L. Longyuan are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Dalian Kewei.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

18+ only. PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Match dates and kick-off times come from third-party data and may change — confirm with official sources before betting. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org