Today / Latvia - Virsliga / RFS vs FS Jelgava

RFS vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 17:00

RFS

PPG 2.17 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.4%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-16.1%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.8%3-16.7%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.2%4+-18.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 90.1% 1.11 -24.4%

Draw 22.7% 14.3% 7.00 +35.3%

Away win 9.2% 5.9% 17.00 +33.8%

Over 2.5 61.0% 73.5% 1.36 -17.0%

Over 3.5 37.5% 51.8% 1.93 -27.6%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 3–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0✓ 8.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RFS2.6

FS Jelgava0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RFS · PPG 2.17

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.17), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

RFS (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -24.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +35.3%

FS Jelgava (A) 9.2%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

RFS face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RFS a 68% chance, the draw 23% and FS Jelgava 9%, so RFS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for RFS and 0.5 for FS Jelgava (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RFS are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.00 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +35.3%. This match finished 4-0.

RFS vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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