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Daugavpils vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 14 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 15:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ogre United

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.8%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.7%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.4%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 69.4% 1.44 -23.4%

Draw 24.7% 23.8% 4.20 +2.2%

Away win 22.1% 16.1% 6.20 +22.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 33.5% 40.0% 2.50 -16.3%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils2.0

Ogre United0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.29

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.2%

Ogre United (A) 22.1%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +22.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Ogre United 22%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Daugavpils and 0.9 for Ogre United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Daugavpils vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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