Today / Norway - 1. Division / Strommen vs Haugesund

Strommen vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Strommen

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

0 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Haugesund

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 3.5 54% chance

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+81.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.5%0-22.6%0-33.0%0-4+6.2%1 1-00.9%1-13.0%1-25.2%1-35.9%1-4+12.3%2 2-00.9%2-13.0%2-25.1%2-35.9%2-4+12.2%3 3-00.6%3-12.0%3-23.4%3-33.9%3-4+8.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.5%4+-22.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+6.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 33.3% 3.00 -20.4%

Draw 20.3% 27.4% 3.65 -15.5%

Away win 57.7% 48.8% 2.05 +18.3%

Over 2.5 79.0% 65.4% 1.53 +20.9%

Over 3.5 79.0% 43.5% 2.30 +81.7%

BTTS 66.7% 69.4% 1.44 -4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-7

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob66.7%

A 58% / xG 2.0-3.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 5.9%

#2 2–3 5.9%

#3 1–2 5.2%

#4 2–2 5.1%

#5 1–4 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strommen2.0

Haugesund3.4

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 79.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMMEN · PPG 0.33

HAUGESUND · PPG 1.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

54%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Strommen (H) 22.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.4%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -15.5%

Haugesund (A) 57.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strommen face Haugesund in Norway - 1. Division on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strommen a 22% chance, the draw 20% and Haugesund 58%, so Haugesund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Strommen and 3.4 for Haugesund (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strommen are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Haugesund. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +81.7%. This match finished 0-7.

Strommen vs Haugesund Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1. Division Predictions