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Sogndal vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Sogndal

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stabaek

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-14.6%0-25.7%0-34.7%0-4+5.3%1 1-02.8%1-16.9%1-28.6%1-37.1%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.5%2-35.4%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.1%3-12.6%3-23.3%3-32.7%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.3% 37.7% 2.65 -21.4%

Draw 22.1% 27.4% 3.65 -11.6%

Away win 53.6% 45.5% 2.20 +17.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 70.4% 1.42 -9.3%

Over 3.5 56.7% 48.8% 2.05 +16.2%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.0%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 2–2✓ 6.5%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogndal1.5

Stabaek2.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGNDAL · PPG 2.00

STABAEK · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Sogndal (H) 24.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -21.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.6%

Stabaek (A) 53.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogndal face Stabaek in Norway - 1. Division on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogndal a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Stabaek 54%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sogndal and 2.5 for Stabaek (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogndal are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Stabaek. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Sogndal vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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