Today / Norway - 1. Division / Moss vs Stromsgodset

Moss vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Moss

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Stromsgodset

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.5%0-24.4%0-33.7%0-4+4.2%1 1-02.4%1-16.1%1-27.7%1-36.5%1-4+7.5%2 2-02.1%2-15.4%2-26.8%2-35.7%2-4+6.6%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-24.0%3-33.4%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.1%4+-22.6%4+-32.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Draw 22.9% 25.0% 4.00 -5.0%

Away win 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Over 2.5 69.8% 72.5% 1.38 -3.7%

Over 3.5 62.1% 51.3% 1.95 +21.1%

BTTS 63.6% 73.5% 1.36 -13.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.6%

A 49% / xG 1.8-2.5 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.7%

#2 1–1✓ 6.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss1.8

Stromsgodset2.5

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 2.00

STROMSGODSET · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.0%

Stromsgodset (A) 49.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face Stromsgodset in Norway - 1. Division on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 28% chance, the draw 23% and Stromsgodset 49%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Moss and 2.5 for Stromsgodset (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Stromsgodset. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Moss vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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