Today / Norway - 1. Division / Asane vs Sandnes Ulf

Asane vs Sandnes Ulf Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 17:00

Asane

PPG 0.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sandnes Ulf

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.2%0-26.6%0-34.7%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.1%1-18.7%1-29.3%1-36.6%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.9%2-16.1%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 34.5% 2.90 -10.2%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 63.7% 1.57 +0.3%

Over 3.5 47.1% 41.7% 2.40 +13.0%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 21.6%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asane1.4

Sandnes Ulf2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ASANE · PPG 0.00

SANDNES ULF · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Asane (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Sandnes Ulf (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asane face Sandnes Ulf in Norway - 1. Division on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asane a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Sandnes Ulf 46%, so Sandnes Ulf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Asane and 2.1 for Sandnes Ulf (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asane are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Sandnes Ulf. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Asane vs Sandnes Ulf Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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