Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Grobina vs Super Nova

Grobina vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 16:00

Grobina

PPG 0.43 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Super Nova

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-116.5%0-210.1%0-34.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-04.1%2-15.0%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.1%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% 44.4% 2.25 -23.8%

Draw 29.9% 31.3% 3.20 -2.6%

Away win 43.3% 33.3% 3.00 +29.9%

Over 2.5 41.5% 46.5% 2.15 -10.8%

Over 3.5 14.4% 25.3% 3.95 -25.9%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–1 16.5%

#4 0–2✓ 10.1%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grobina0.8

Super Nova1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GROBINA · PPG 0.43

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Grobina (H) 26.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.8%

Draw 29.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -2.6%

Super Nova (A) 43.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grobina face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grobina a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Super Nova 43%, so Super Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Grobina and 1.2 for Super Nova (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grobina are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +29.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Grobina vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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