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Tukums vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 14 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 15:00

Tukums

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Riga FC

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.8%0-24.0%0-33.8%0-4+5.4%1 1-01.7%1-14.9%1-27.0%1-36.7%1-4+9.7%2 2-01.5%2-14.4%2-26.3%2-36.0%2-4+8.6%3 3-00.9%3-12.6%3-23.7%3-33.5%3-4+5.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.7%4+-22.5%4+-32.4%4+-4+3.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 8.3% 12.00 +120.7%

Draw 20.5% 18.5% 5.40 +6.4%

Away win 54.3% 83.3% 1.20 -34.8%

Over 2.5 73.3% 69.0% 1.45 +6.3%

Over 3.5 68.1% 46.5% 2.15 +46.4%

BTTS 66.7% 52.6% 1.90 +26.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob66.7%

A 54% / xG 1.8-2.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.0%

#2 1–3✓ 6.7%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.8

Riga FC2.9

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 68.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 1.29

RIGA FC · PPG 2.29

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 25.1%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +120.7%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +6.4%

Riga FC (A) 54.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -34.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face Riga FC in Latvia - Virsliga on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 25% chance, the draw 21% and Riga FC 54%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tukums and 2.9 for Riga FC (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.29 for Riga FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +120.7%. This match finished 1-3.

Tukums vs Riga FC Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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