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AFC Eskilstuna vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 8 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 17:30

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Arlanda

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+68.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-16.5%0-29.9%0-310.1%0-4+16.6%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.9%1-38.0%1-4+13.2%2 2-00.7%2-12.0%2-23.1%2-33.2%2-4+5.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.8%3-30.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.5% 42.6% 2.35 -43.8%

Draw 21.0% 27.8% 3.60 -14.6%

Away win 67.5% 40.0% 2.50 +68.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 64.5% 1.55 -0.9%

Over 3.5 53.7% 42.0% 2.38 +27.8%

BTTS 52.5% 69.0% 1.45 -23.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob52.5%

A 68% / xG 0.8-3.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.1%

#2 0–2 9.9%

#3 1–3 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 0–4 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna0.8

Arlanda3.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 0.33

ARLANDA · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 11.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -43.8%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.6%

Arlanda (A) 67.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +68.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Arlanda in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Arlanda 68%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for AFC Eskilstuna and 3.1 for Arlanda (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 3.00 for Arlanda. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +68.8%. This match finished 0-0.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Arlanda Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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