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Angelholm vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 8 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 17:00

Angelholm

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kristianstad

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.9%0-23.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.7%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.2%3-16.4%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-15.1%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 45.5% 2.20 +13.7%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 24.3% 35.1% 2.85 -18.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 58.8% 1.70 +4.4%

Over 3.5 40.7% 36.4% 2.75 +11.9%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angelholm2.0

Kristianstad1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGELHOLM · PPG 0.75

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 0.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.75) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Angelholm (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +13.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Kristianstad (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angelholm face Kristianstad in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angelholm a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Kristianstad 24%, so Angelholm are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Angelholm and 1.2 for Kristianstad (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angelholm are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.25 for Kristianstad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Angelholm vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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