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FC Barcelona vs Real Betis Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:15

FC Barcelona

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Real Betis

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-18.1%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.6%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-17.9%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.5% 76.3% 1.31 -20.8%

Draw 21.7% 18.5% 5.40 +10.3%

Away win 17.8% 12.2% 8.20 +27.6%

Over 2.5 61.4% 74.1% 1.35 -17.1%

Over 3.5 41.2% 54.6% 1.83 -24.6%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 60% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Barcelona2.4

Real Betis0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BARCELONA · PPG 3.00

REAL BETIS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=60.5%

Win probability 1X2

FC Barcelona (H) 60.5%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -20.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.3%

Real Betis (A) 17.8%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Barcelona face Real Betis in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Barcelona a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Real Betis 18%, so FC Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Barcelona and 0.9 for Real Betis (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Barcelona are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Real Betis. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.6%. This match finished 3-1.

FC Barcelona vs Real Betis Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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