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Sevilla FC vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Sevilla FC

PPG 1.39 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Real Madrid

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-110.4%0-29.5%0-35.8%0-4+4.0%1 1-05.9%1-110.8%1-29.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.1%2-15.6%2-25.1%2-33.1%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 32.3% 3.10 -17.0%

Draw 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

Away win 52.9% 45.9% 2.18 +15.3%

Over 2.5 56.6% 57.8% 1.73 -2.1%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 54.2% 63.7% 1.57 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.2%

A 53% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.5%

#4 0–1✓ 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sevilla FC1.0

Real Madrid1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SEVILLA FC · PPG 1.39

REAL MADRID · PPG 1.89

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.39) vs Away GOOD (1.89)

Win probability 1X2

Sevilla FC (H) 23.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -17.0%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.3%

Real Madrid (A) 52.9%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sevilla FC face Real Madrid in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sevilla FC a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Real Madrid 53%, so Real Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sevilla FC and 1.8 for Real Madrid (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sevilla FC are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.89 for Real Madrid. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Sevilla FC vs Real Madrid Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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