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Elche vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 19:30

Elche

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

UPCOMING

Real Sociedad

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.6%1-111.0%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 34.5% 2.90 +35.1%

Draw 24.1% 30.3% 3.30 -12.3%

Away win 29.3% 43.5% 2.30 -19.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 55.6% 1.80 +7.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 42.0% 2.38 +18.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 2.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elche1.8

Real Sociedad1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ELCHE · PPG 1.43

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 0.79

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Elche (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +35.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.3%

Real Sociedad (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elche face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elche a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Real Sociedad 29%, so Elche are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Elche and 1.1 for Real Sociedad (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elche are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.79 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +49.1%.

Elche vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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