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Getafe vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 4 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:00

Getafe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LWL ··

UPCOMING

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-110.7%0-24.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.8%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.2%2-17.7%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.1%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 40.8% 2.45 +9.5%

Draw 30.2% 35.7% 2.80 -15.4%

Away win 25.1% 30.3% 3.30 -10.3%

Over 2.5 39.4% 31.3% 3.20 +26.1%

Over 3.5 20.8% 16.7% 6.00 +14.9%

BTTS 48.0% 46.5% 2.15 +3.2%

Home O1.5 33.0% 30.8% 3.25 +7.2%

Away O1.5 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 97 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 2.5%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe1.2

Celta Vigo0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE · PPG 1.71

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.44, combined xG 1.97 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Getafe (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +9.5%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.4%

Celta Vigo (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe face Celta Vigo in Spain - La Liga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Celta Vigo 25%, so Getafe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Getafe and 0.8 for Celta Vigo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.42 for Celta Vigo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.1%.

Getafe vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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