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Real Sociedad vs Valencia Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Real Sociedad

PPG 1.61 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Valencia

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.5%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.2%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.1%3-15.6%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.6%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 46.7% 2.14 +8.9%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -8.8%

Away win 24.0% 30.8% 3.25 -13.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Sociedad1.7

Valencia1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 1.61

VALENCIA · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.61) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Real Sociedad (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +8.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.8%

Valencia (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Sociedad face Valencia in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Sociedad a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Valencia 24%, so Real Sociedad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Sociedad and 1.1 for Valencia (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Sociedad are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 0.89 for Valencia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 3-4.

Real Sociedad vs Valencia Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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