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Real Oviedo vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Real Oviedo

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Alaves

PPG 0.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-114.1%0-27.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.2%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-16.4%2-23.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 25.0% 4.00 +31.2%

Draw 30.3% 27.8% 3.60 +9.1%

Away win 36.9% 54.3% 1.84 -32.1%

Over 2.5 46.2% 54.6% 1.83 -15.4%

Over 3.5 15.4% 32.3% 3.10 -31.4%

BTTS 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1✓ 14.1%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Oviedo1.0

Alaves1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL OVIEDO · PPG 1.06

ALAVES · PPG 0.72

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.72)

Win probability 1X2

Real Oviedo (H) 32.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +31.2%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +9.1%

Alaves (A) 36.9%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -32.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Oviedo face Alaves in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Oviedo a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Alaves 37%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Oviedo and 1.1 for Alaves (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Oviedo are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.72 for Alaves. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +31.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Oviedo vs Alaves Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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