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Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Villarreal

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-111.8%0-27.5%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.2%1-113.0%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-17.2%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 43.5% 2.30 -17.7%

Draw 27.4% 28.2% 3.55 -1.6%

Away win 36.8% 35.2% 2.84 +4.5%

Over 2.5 47.4% 58.8% 1.70 -19.4%

Over 3.5 21.9% 35.7% 2.80 -23.2%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1 11.8%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Vallecano1.1

Villarreal1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 1.56

VILLARREAL · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Vallecano (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.7%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -1.6%

Villarreal (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Vallecano face Villarreal in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Vallecano a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Villarreal 37%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.3 for Villarreal (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.44 for Villarreal. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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