← Back to picks 
Spain - La Liga Sunday, May 17, 2026 17:00 
Rayo Vallecano PPG 1.56 
Villarreal PPG 1.44
Spain - La Liga Sunday, May 17, 2026 17:00 Rayo Vallecano PPG 1.562-0 MISS
Villarreal PPG 1.44Away· +4.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 47.4% Odds: 1.70 -19.4%
Over 3.5 21.9% Odds: 2.80 -23.2%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.57 -19.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 0-1 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 1-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano 1.11
Villarreal 1.28
Model Suggestion
BTTS -19.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -19.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+4.5%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
BALANCED 42%
Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.44)