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Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Osasuna

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Espanyol

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.1%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.2%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.7%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 46.7% 2.14 +4.2%

Draw 26.6% 34.2% 2.92 -13.4%

Away win 24.7% 26.0% 3.85 -2.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 42.6% 2.35 +11.9%

Over 3.5 25.0% 23.1% 4.33 +5.0%

BTTS 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna1.5

Espanyol1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA · PPG 1.78

ESPANYOL · PPG 0.94

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=48.7%

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna (H) 48.7%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -13.4%

Espanyol (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face Espanyol in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Espanyol 25%, so Osasuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Osasuna and 1.0 for Espanyol (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.94 for Espanyol. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Osasuna vs Espanyol Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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