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Levante vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Levante

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mallorca

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.8%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.6%1-111.9%1-27.3%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.1%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 47.2% 2.12 -1.6%

Draw 26.7% 29.0% 3.45 -4.7%

Away win 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Over 3.5 30.1% 32.3% 3.10 -6.7%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 2–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levante1.5

Mallorca1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVANTE · PPG 1.28

MALLORCA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.28) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Levante (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -1.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -4.7%

Mallorca (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levante face Mallorca in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levante a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Mallorca 27%, so Levante are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Levante and 1.2 for Mallorca (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levante are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 0.50 for Mallorca. This match finished 2-0.

Levante vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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