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Elche vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Elche

PPG 1.78 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Getafe

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-111.0%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.2%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-18.0%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 44.2% 2.26 +1.5%

Draw 29.3% 35.5% 2.82 -10.4%

Away win 25.7% 27.4% 3.65 -3.7%

Over 2.5 46.2% 37.7% 2.65 +22.4%

Over 3.5 16.4% 19.0% 5.25 -8.3%

BTTS 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0✓ 14.5%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elche1.2

Getafe0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ELCHE · PPG 1.78

GETAFE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.78) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Elche (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +1.5%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -10.4%

Getafe (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elche face Getafe in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elche a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Getafe 26%, so Elche are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Elche and 0.9 for Getafe (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elche are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.33 for Getafe. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Elche vs Getafe Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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