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Spain - La Liga Sunday, May 17, 2026 17:00 
Atletico Madrid PPG 2.39 
Girona PPG 0.94
Spain - La Liga Sunday, May 17, 2026 17:00 Atletico Madrid PPG 2.391-0 HIT CS3
Girona PPG 0.94Away· -1.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.75 -8.0%
Over 3.5 29.2% Odds: 2.80 -10.9%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.70 -12.3%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✔
4th 2-1 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Madrid 1.90
Girona 0.83
Model Suggestion
Home -7.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -7.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 70 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 51%
O2.5/Under 60%
BTTS/No 64%
Score Hit 56%
ROI -19.9%
Bet Hit 42% (26 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=53.2%