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Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Atletico Madrid

PPG 2.39 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Girona

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.4%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.4%1-110.3%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.2%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 57.5% 1.74 -7.4%

Draw 24.7% 27.0% 3.70 -5.2%

Away win 22.1% 22.5% 4.45 -1.0%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 29.2% 35.7% 2.80 -10.9%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.8%

#3 1–0✓ 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Madrid1.9

Girona0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 2.39

GIRONA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.39) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Madrid (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -7.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.2%

Girona (A) 22.1%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Madrid face Girona in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Madrid a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Girona 22%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Atletico Madrid and 0.8 for Girona (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Madrid are averaging 2.39 points per game versus 0.94 for Girona. This match finished 1-0.

Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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