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Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 37 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 17:00

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-111.4%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-17.4%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 46.3% 2.16 -22.7%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 36.8% 29.9% 3.35 +23.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Bilbao1.1

Celta Vigo1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 1.61

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.61), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Bilbao (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -22.7%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Celta Vigo (A) 36.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Bilbao face Celta Vigo in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Bilbao a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Celta Vigo 37%, so Celta Vigo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Athletic Bilbao and 1.3 for Celta Vigo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Bilbao are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.67 for Celta Vigo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Athletic Bilbao vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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