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Liepaja vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 16:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Daugavpils

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.9%0-24.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.3%1-111.4%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.2%3-15.2%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 61.0% 1.64 -20.3%

Draw 25.8% 26.3% 3.80 -1.2%

Away win 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +9.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Over 3.5 32.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.0%

BTTS 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.3%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja1.7

Daugavpils1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.33

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 48.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -20.3%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -1.2%

Daugavpils (A) 25.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Daugavpils in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Daugavpils 26%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Liepaja and 1.2 for Daugavpils (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Daugavpils. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Liepaja vs Daugavpils Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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